Global consensus Monte Carlo

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the data. Inspired by global variable consensus optimisation, we introduce an instrumental hierarchical model associating auxiliary statistical parameters with each term, which are conditionally independent given the top-level parameters. One of these top-level parameters controls the unconditional strength of association between the auxiliary parameters. This model leads to a distributed MCMC algorithm on an extended state space yielding approximations of posterior expectations. A trade-off between computational tractability and fidelity to the original model can be controlled by changing the association strength in the instrumental model. We further propose the use of a SMC sampler with a sequence of association strengths, allowing both the automatic determination of appropriate strengths and for a bias correction technique to be applied. In contrast to similar distributed Monte Carlo algorithms, this approach requires few distributional assumptions. The performance of the algorithms is illustrated with a number of simulated examples

Global consensus Monte Carlo

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the data. Inspired by global variable consensus optimisation, we introduce an instrumental hierarchical model associating auxiliary statistical parameters with each term, which are conditionally independent given the top-level parameters. One of these top-level parameters controls the unconditional strength of association between the auxiliary parameters. This model leads to a distributed MCMC algorithm on an extended state space yielding approximations of posterior expectations. A trade-off between computational tractability and fidelity to the original model can be controlled by changing the association strength in the instrumental model. We further propose the use of a SMC sampler with a sequence of association strengths, allowing both the automatic determination of appropriate strengths and for a bias correction technique to be applied. In contrast to similar distributed Monte Carlo algorithms, this approach requires few distributional assumptions. The performance of the algorithms is illustrated with a number of simulated examples

Commensurability oscillations in the rf conductivity of unidirectional lateral superlattices: measurement of anisotropic conductivity by coplanar waveguide

We have measured the rf magnetoconductivity of unidirectional lateral superlattices (ULSLs) by detecting the attenuation of microwave through a coplanar waveguide placed on the surface. ULSL samples with the principal axis of the modulation perpendicular (S_perp) and parallel (S_||) to the microwave electric field are examined. For low microwave power, we observe expected anisotropic behavior of the commensurability oscillations (CO), with CO in samples S_perp and S_|| dominated by the diffusion and the collisional contributions, respectively. Amplitude modulation of the Shubnikov-de Haas oscillations is observed to be more prominent in sample S_||. The difference between the two samples is washed out with the increase of the microwave power, letting the diffusion contribution govern the CO in both samples. The failure of the intended directional selectivity in the conductivity measured with high microwave power is interpreted in terms of large-angle electron-phonon scattering.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

Preparing the Perfect Cuttlefish Meal: Complex Prey Handling by Dolphins

Dolphins are well known for their complex social and foraging behaviours. Direct underwater observations of wild dolphin feeding behaviour however are rare. At mass spawning aggregations of giant cuttlefish (Sepia apama) in the Upper Spencer Gulf in South Australia, a wild female Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) was observed and recorded repeatedly catching, killing and preparing cuttlefish for consumption using a specific and ordered sequence of behaviours. Cuttlefish were herded to a sand substrate, pinned to the seafloor, killed by downward thrust, raised mid-water and beaten by the dolphin with its snout until the ink was released and drained. The deceased cuttlefish was then returned to the seafloor, inverted and forced along the sand substrate in order to strip the thin dorsal layer of skin off the mantle, thus releasing the buoyant calcareous cuttlebone. This stepped behavioural sequence significantly improves prey quality through 1) removal of the ink (with constituent melanin and tyrosine), and 2) the calcareous cuttlebone. Observations of foraging dolphin pods from above-water at this site (including the surfacing of intact clean cuttlebones) suggest that some or all of this prey handling sequence may be used widely by dolphins in the region. Aspects of the unique mass spawning aggregations of giant cuttlefish in this region of South Australia may have contributed to the evolution of this behaviour through both high abundances of spawning and weakened post-spawning cuttlefish in a small area (>10,000 animals on several kilometres of narrow rocky reef), as well as potential long-term and regular visitation by dolphin pods to this site

PAX-D:study protocol for a randomised placebo-controlled trial evaluating the efficacy and mechanism of pramipexole as add-on treatment for people with treatment resistant depression

Introduction: Clinical depression is usually treated in primary care with psychological therapies and antidepressant medication. However, when patients do not respond to at least two or more antidepressants within a depressive episode, they are considered to have treatment resistant depression (TRD). Previous small randomised controlled trials suggested that pramipexole, a dopamine D2/3 receptor agonist, may be effective for treating patients with unipolar and bipolar depression as it is known to influence motivational drive and reward processing. PAX-D will compare the effects of pramipexole versus placebo when added to current antidepressant medication for people with TRD. Additionally, PAX-D will investigate the mechanistic effect of pramipexole on reward sensitivity using a probabilistic decision-making task. Methods and analysis: PAX-D will assess effectiveness in the short- term (during the first 12 weeks) and in the longer-term (48 weeks) in patients with TRD from the UK. The primary outcome will be change in self-reported depressive symptoms from baseline to Week 12 post-randomisation measured using the QIDS-SR. Performance on the decision-making task will be measured at Week 0, Week 2, and Week 12. Secondary outcomes include anhedonia, anxiety, and health economic measures including quality of life, capability, wellbeing, and costs. PAX-D will also assess the adverse effects of pramipexole including impulse control difficulties. Discussion: Pramipexole is a promising augmentation agent for treatment resistant depression and may be a useful addition to existing treatment regimes. PAX-D will assess its effectiveness and test for a potential mechanism of action in patients with treatment resistant depression

Indirect comparison of interventions using published randomised trials: systematic review of PDE-5 inhibitors for erectile dysfunction

BACKGROUND: There are no randomised and properly blinded trials directly comparing one PDE-5 inhibitor with another in a normal home setting. Valid indirect comparisons with a common comparator must examine equivalent doses, similar duration, similar populations, with the same outcomes reported in the same way. METHODS: Published randomised, double-blind trials of oral PDE-5 inhibitors for erectile dysfunction were sought from reference lists in previous reviews and electronic searching. Analyses of efficacy and harm were carried out for each treatment, and results compared where there was a common comparator and consistency of outcome reporting, using equivalent doses. RESULTS: Analysis was limited by differential reporting of outcomes. Sildenafil trials were clinically and geographically more diverse. Tadalafil and vardenafil trials tended to use enriched enrolment. Using all trials, the three interventions were similar for consistently reported efficacy outcomes. Rates of successful intercourse for sildenafil, tadalafil and vardenafil were 65%, 62%, and 59%, with placebo rates of 23–28%. The rates of improved erections were 76%, 75% and 71%, respectively, with placebo rates of 22–24%, and NNTs of 1.9 or 2.0. Reporting of withdrawals was less consistent, but all-cause withdrawals for sildenafil, tadalafil and vardenafil were 8% 13% and 20%. All three drugs were well tolerated, with headache being the most commonly reported event at 13–17%. There were few serious adverse events. CONCLUSION: There were differences between trials in outcomes reported, limiting comparisons, and the most useful outcomes were not reported. For common outcomes there was similar efficacy between PDE-5 inhibitors

Improved functionalization of oleic acid-coated iron oxide nanoparticles for biomedical applications

Superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles can providemultiple benefits for biomedical applications in aqueous environments such asmagnetic separation or magnetic resonance imaging. To increase the colloidal stability and allow subsequent reactions, the introduction of hydrophilic functional groups onto the particles’ surface is essential. During this process, the original coating is exchanged by preferably covalently bonded ligands such as trialkoxysilanes. The duration of the silane exchange reaction, which commonly takes more than 24 h, is an important drawback for this approach. In this paper, we present a novel method, which introduces ultrasonication as an energy source to dramatically accelerate this process, resulting in high-quality waterdispersible nanoparticles around 10 nmin size. To prove the generic character, different functional groups were introduced on the surface including polyethylene glycol chains, carboxylic acid, amine, and thiol groups. Their colloidal stability in various aqueous buffer solutions as well as human plasma and serum was investigated to allow implementation in biomedical and sensing applications.status: publishe

Effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on stroke and atrial fibrillation in diabetic kidney disease: Results from the CREDENCE trial and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Chronic kidney disease with reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate or elevated albuminuria increases risk for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. This study assessed the effects of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on stroke and atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) from CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation) and a meta-Analysis of large cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) of SGLT2i in type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: CREDENCE randomized 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease to canagliflozin or placebo. Post hoc, we estimated effects on fatal or nonfatal stroke, stroke subtypes, and intermediate markers of stroke risk including AF/AFL. Stroke and AF/AFL data from 3 other completed large CVOTs and CREDENCE were pooled using random-effects meta-Analysis. RESULTS: In CREDENCE, 142 participants experienced a stroke during follow-up (10.9/1000 patient-years with canagliflozin, 14.2/1000 patient-years with placebo; hazard ratio [HR], 0.77 [95% CI, 0.55-1.08]). Effects by stroke subtypes were: ischemic (HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.61-1.28]; n=111), hemorrhagic (HR, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.19-1.32]; n=18), and undetermined (HR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.20-1.46]; n=17). There was no clear effect on AF/AFL (HR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.53-1.10]; n=115). The overall effects in the 4 CVOTs combined were: Total stroke (HRpooled, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.82-1.12]), ischemic stroke (HRpooled, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.89-1.14]), hemorrhagic stroke (HRpooled, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.30-0.83]), undetermined stroke (HRpooled, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.49-1.51]), and AF/AFL (HRpooled, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.71-0.93]). There was evidence that SGLT2i effects on total stroke varied by baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (P=0.01), with protection in the lowest estimated glomerular filtration rate (45 mL/min/1.73 m2]) subgroup (HRpooled, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.31-0.79]). CONCLUSIONS: Although we found no clear effect of SGLT2i on total stroke in CREDENCE or across trials combined, there was some evidence of benefit in preventing hemorrhagic stroke and AF/AFL, as well as total stroke for those with lowest estimated glomerular filtration rate. Future research should focus on confirming these data and exploring potential mechanisms

The challenge of habitat modelling for threatened low density species using heterogeneous data : the case of Cuvier’s beaked whales in the Mediterranean

We are grateful to the ACCOBAMS Secretariat for their support in this work, including a small grant for the analysis.The Mediterranean population of Cuvieŕs beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris), a deep-diving cetacean, is genetically distinct from the Atlantic, and subject to a number of conservation threats, in particular underwater noise. It is also cryptic at the surface and relatively rare, so obtain robust knowledge on distribution and abundance presents unique challenges. Here we use multiplatform and multiyear survey data to analyse the distribution and abundance of this species across the Mediterranean Sea. We use a novel approach combining heterogeneous data gathered with different methods to obtain a single density index for the region. A total of 594,996 km of survey effort and 507 sightings of Cuvier’s beaked whales, from 1990 to 2016, were pooled together from 24 different sources. Data were divided into twelve major groups according to platform height, speed and sea state. Both availability bias and effective strip width were calculated from the sightings with available perpendicular distance data. This was extrapolated to the rest of the sightings for each of the twelve groups. Habitat preference models were fitted into a GAM framework using counts of groups as a response variable with the effective searched area as an offset. Depth, coefficient of variation of depth, longitude and marine regions (as defined by the International Hydrographic Organization) were identified as important predictors. Predicted abundance of groups per grid cell were multiplied by mean group size to obtain a prediction of the abundance of animals. A total abundance of 5799 (CV = 24.0%) animals was estimated for the whole Mediterranean basin. The Alborán Sea, Ligurian Sea, Hellenic Trench, southern Adriatic Sea and eastern Ionian Sea were identified as being the main hot spots in the region. It is important to urge that the relevant stakeholders incorporate this information in the planning and execution of high risk activities in these high-risk areas.PostprintPeer reviewe

Effect of sitagliptin on cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Data are lacking on the long-term effect on cardiovascular events of adding sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor, to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind study, we assigned 14,671 patients to add either sitagliptin or placebo to their existing therapy. Open-label use of antihyperglycemic therapy was encouraged as required, aimed at reaching individually appropriate glycemic targets in all patients. To determine whether sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo, we used a relative risk of 1.3 as the marginal upper boundary. The primary cardiovascular outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there was a small difference in glycated hemoglobin levels (least-squares mean difference for sitagliptin vs. placebo, -0.29 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.32 to -0.27). Overall, the primary outcome occurred in 839 patients in the sitagliptin group (11.4%; 4.06 per 100 person-years) and 851 patients in the placebo group (11.6%; 4.17 per 100 person-years). Sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.09; P<0.001). Rates of hospitalization for heart failure did not differ between the two groups (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.20; P = 0.98). There were no significant between-group differences in rates of acute pancreatitis (P = 0.07) or pancreatic cancer (P = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease, adding sitagliptin to usual care did not appear to increase the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, hospitalization for heart failure, or other adverse events